What the heck? Why? How? — Questions that are probably running through your head after reading the title. Carry on reading if this prediction somehow interests/angers/enlightens you. If not, well, your loss!
Apple's advantage in the cloud game is that so many Mac and iPhone/iPad/iPod Touch owners already use the core applications that iCloud will seamlessly integrate into, such as iPhoto, iTunes, Mail, Calendar, Contacts, and so forth. The keynote explained that, because of the seamless integration, people won't have to learn anything – it'll just work. Maintaining total synchronization will require no effort. No web apps to log into, no new interfaces, buttons, etc.
Facebook has achieved a comparable level of integration, but in its own sense. It has become a truly integral part of people's lives, as well as for the Internet itself. Facebook can never "fail" unless it was deliberately shut down. Too many people have too much already invested into it to just switch to another platform. Sharing photos, event planning, communication, entertainment, promotions, and gossip is apparently a winning formula. More after the jump...
Why Facebook is 1st in Social Media, probably forever*:
- Everyone and their Moms (literally) are on Facebook.
- Facebook Apps & Games are extremely addictive. 90 million active users!!
- Marketer's dream come true (Read this article to get a feel of what Facebook is worth). What's a "like" worth, anyway?
- Deeply rooted into MANY websites (likes, sharing, memberships, comments system, promotions, etc.).
- Cloud 9 for Advertisers looking for targeted promotions. FB knows you better than your Mom. So does Google, but Facebook more so. Oh!
* = Until the priorities of today's users of the Internet change, and some new service/platform beats Facebook to the punch to accomodate them, Facebook is not going anywhere. The brilliant talent that Facebook has been hiring will be put to the test in a matter of time. Chances are, they'll be fine.
"Man's mind, once stretched by a new idea, never regains its original dimensions." — Oliver Wendell Holmes
The above quote by Mr. Holmes is one that has stuck with me for years. In our case, it means that nobody will ever accept anything less than what they are already used to. It's one of the luxuries of the Internet; bitching and whining about something you don't like or want. This is the very reason why there's an uproar every time Facebook changes the layout. People lose what they worked so hard to learn and get used to, only to realize that those changes were actually pretty good (usually), thus end up liking the updates after all.
A true competitor is one that offers a superior product, puts more on the table, and goes for the jugular (the target's mind and heart).
Apple will continue its dominance...
- Apple gives you the experience they think you want, before you even want it. Admit it, you usually do want it!
- You subconsciously grow dependent on the Apple products you use, and when it's gone, you cry. It's love.
- You fall victim to Apple's marketing, because their ads are flawless, and based on truth.
- If Apple knows how to do one thing well, it's integration; iTunes, iOS, App Store, and now iCloud.
- Apple takes existing ideas and makes them better, functional through minimalism and simplicity. Think Different™
Meanwhile companies will continue trying to figure out why the iPad is selling so well, and why their technically superior devices are not.... Apple understands how to engineer great experiences, not just pretty looking hardware. This is what will emotionally lock users in (just like Facebook) and help Apple build a reliance on iCloud, to the point where no one can afford its failure, therefore mimicking the Facebook model.
Once you get used to your devices constantly and seamlessly being synched with your photos, calendars, documents, contacts, and apps, anything less will simply be unacceptable. iCloud failing is equivalent to Facebook losing its photo sharing ability, ergo leading to its epic collapse. People's lives are ingrained into Facebook's services, and the iCloud is aiming to do just that.
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When ever I see an Apple ad on TV I have to mute the sound because they make me want to throw up. The new iPad 2 ads reek of self gratifying snobbery and I actually would make their ads a reason why I WOULDN'T buy an iPad.
Perhaps I might get one when they change their ads.
Self gratifying snobbery? If you feel that way about Apple's ads, you probably shouldn't watch TV anymore, haha. As I mentioned in the post, their ads are based on truth, not some made up bullshit like we've all come to expect in this world.
I agree with Nick, Apple ads are all about self appraisal. The devices are great, the attitude is meh.
So, iCloud will be the next Facebook, or will Apple be the next Facebook?
Maybe you're right: Apple's services will become just an integral part of people's lives as Facebook has. Something to watch.
Lasha normally I can tolerate their ads, some I liked, like the iPhone ads where they showed off the device with some good backing music.
The current iPad 2 ads on at the moment are literally sickening.
Without knowing exactly which ads you guys are talking about, I must say that you are COMPLETELY missing the point of what advertising is supposed to be. Every single ad Apple has ever aired was based on the functionality, ease of use, and overall experience of their products. Nothing was ever based on anything made up.
I am wondering how on Earth you guys have come to think that a company advertising itself ISN'T supposed to preach its accomplishments? THAT'S WHAT ADVERTISING IS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Two points from me, Apple and Facebook are completely different products with different visions. I'm not so sure you can compare a web app to a physical product the way you do here, as the web app will never be. It's like apples and oranges (pardon the pun).
Second (and only because of the comments), Apple's advertising now has come to a point where it's blatantly arrogent, and this turns a lot of people off, including myself.
Hi Dan, that is the exact reaction I was hoping to generate from people, with my crazy comparison of the two fundamentally different services. The "glue" that ties together the two services in my comparison is the fact that both Apple and Facebook are utilizing a similar approach to building and retaining a userbase. Once one invests so much into any one thing, it becomes hard to look away.
Please clarify what exactly makes Apple's recent ads seem arrogant, snobby, etc. When I watch these ads, all I see is a company trying to sell you their product by telling you why it's great. For instance, they tell me that the iPad isn't just a gadget, it's something everyone can relate to and have specific purpose for it. Another ad tells and shows me the things that the device can do without trying to baffle and sell me on megahertz, Flash support, and how it's the best device according to reviews and ratings, making me feel like I have to be a techy robot to use the device.
This is what advertising is supposed to be! These are the types of ads that target the people its trying to appeal to, and show them how and why their products are used and loved. I studied Advertising for 4 years, and I am clearly not "falling" for anything, as some may think. I'm just saying, this is why Apple IS the tablet market right now, and no one else gets why. It's all about selling people the emotions they want, and the experiences they'd like.
I am lead to believe that these ads are turning people off because they've been used to shitty advertising for so long, and when they watch Apple's ads, they feel vulnerable, infiltrated, like their thoughts and feelings were violated, simply because that's what Apple is targeting. Are we all turning into heartless drones of of the 21st century, becoming the ultimate critics of the world around us, saying how we should and shouldn't be spoken to by advertisements?
Please explain to me why and how Apple's ads are coming off the way they are to you.
Lasha,
From my posts on Sliceofmymind.com, you already know my stance on Apple and their culture that fosters growth of rhetoric spewing zealots. Apple ads ARE arrogant and protrudes a championed mantra even if the product in the ad offers little over older Apple products.
What I see and many others see is Apple no longer a leader in innovation, no they are resting on their laurels and this has allowed other companies like Google to offer products that are comparable or even surpasses what Apple is offering.
iOS 5 is suppose to (yet again) revolutionize mobile OS's but if you look closely, almost all of those features deem revolutionary have been available to users of Android for quite some time. O.T.A updates...we have that. Contacts, Calendar and App syncing...we have that.
If those features and more could cause Apple to be the next Facebook, shouldn't Google be in front of Apple in line?
Lasha,
I'd say the one ad that made me feel this way was a recent iPhone ad. The words spoken were, "If you don't have an iPhone, you don't have a iPhone." To me this is arrogant and basically telling me that I'm not part of the "in-crowd". I've never wanted to be a part of the in-crowd which is why I have a political agenda against getting an iPhone. When you dedicate too much to one brand, they've got you by the balls.
Dan, thank you for actually clarifying and referring to a specific ad. I believe this is where some people are fundamentally different. Throughout college, I've looked at and analyzed hundreds (maybe even thousands) of ads from around the world, learning about the psychology behind the ads, the cultural and psychological differences of people that were affected in various ways, and so forth. Most ads that ever air on TV, or go into print, are not supposed to be taken literally, as the people in this comment thread seem to have. It is difficult to find ads where a product that's being sold isn't being exaggerated, or presented in a "this is the best" form. The advertising world isn't humble, as it isn't supposed to be. You're not gonna find an affective ad out there who's purpose is "hey, we have a product, hopefully you'll check it out."
The ad that you referred to... what it tells me about Apple and the iPhone is that it does things in ways that other phones don't (which is the selling point, and the emotional benefit that they're trying to get you to feel). Some people, as this thread has made clear, aren't comfortable with their emotions being targeted that way – they feel insulted, literally, and it's understandable, but I in no way feel that I "must" do something or I won't be in the "in-crowd."
I never feared being dedicated to the brands that I am sold to. I feel that if I've reached a point where I am passionate about a brand because of a product or a service, they're doing something right for me. I have developed preference for the products and services offered by Apple, Amazon, NewEgg, BeeJive, TapBots, Netflix, Pandora, Chipotle, Pret A Manger, Gowalla, Remember the Milk, HGTV, Dropbox, WordPress, SoundHound, and so forth. They all have great competition, but I use them specifically for what I feel they've done for me. Am I obligated to stick to any one of these should a better solution come up for me? Absolutely not.